FIRST ALERT FORECAST: Unseasonably warm today, Sunday; First Alert Weather Day Sunday evening

Published: Oct. 22, 2022 at 7:25 AM CDT
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SIOUX FALLS, S.D. (Dakota News Now) -- While the calendar might lead mid to late October, it’ll be feeling more like late Summer across the area.

A weak area of low pressure tracks across the state and a boundary will basically divide the state in half. North of the front we’ll have a partly cloudy sky and a variable wind with highs in the mid 60s to mid 70s. South of there, winds will be southerly with a mainly sunny sky and highs in the upper 70s to mid to upper 80s. With the dry conditions, low humidity and somewhat breezy conditions, there will be an elevated to near critical fire weather risk.

Sunday is when things could get interesting. A strengthening area of low pressure will track from the panhandle of Nebraska into central South Dakota Sunday moving northeast Sunday night into Monday. It’ll be warm and breezy ahead of the system with highs in the 70s and 80s. Heading towards Sunday night, there will be some moisture and energy available for some showers and thunderstorms to develop along and east of the James River. The Storm Prediction Center has now bumped up parts of the area to a level two severe weather risk. This includes Brookings, Sioux Falls, Yankton, Sioux Center, Worthington and Sioux City with a level one risk including Sisseton, Watertown, Huron, Mitchell and Marshall. As a result, we have declared a FIRST ALERT WEATHER DAY for these areas. The timing looks to be between 5 PM and 1 AM with gusty winds being the main hazard though hail is also possible, and there is a very low end risk for an isolated tornado in the level two risk area. The severe threat does remain somewhat conditional, as it will depend on the track and timing of the low pressure and cold front and if we can get the ingredients together for severe weather to occur. Be sure to stay with the First Alert Weather Team as we monitor the situation closely. There could be accumulating snow in western South Dakota with some flurries or light snow showers possible in central South Dakota.

Spotty rain showers will continue Monday before ending Monday evening with strong winds and colder temperatures.

As far as how much precipitation will fall, the lower totals will be where the center of the low tracks over with the higher totals will be to the northwest and southeast of the center of the low. It’s plausible some areas could see little to no rain and others could see several tenths of an inch.