South Dakota election polls reaching drastically different conclusions

SIOUX FALLS, S.D. (Dakota News Now) - Election Day is right around the corner, with many key seats up for grabs. The races are heating up, and candidates are keeping score. However, polling is proving to be complicated with very different results.

Democratic candidates Dan Ahlers and Nikki Gronli are touting that they’re “within striking distance” in their gubernatorial and congressional races, respectively, by citing polls from Lake Research Partners and Concord Public Opinion. However, South Dakota News Watch has Governor Larry Rhoden and Attorney General Marty Jackley up by wide margins.

Gronli, a US House candidate, was listed as trailing Jackley by just 4% according to Lake Research Partners and 3% according to Concord Public Opinion. On the other hand, South Dakota News Watch listed Jackley leading by 28%

Gubernatorial hopeful Ahlers is only behind Governor Rhoden 44% to 51%, according to Lake Research Partners and 38% to 48% according to Concord Public Opinion.

In a media release, Ahlers responded to these numbers with a statement.

“We’re encouraged by these polls, but they’re only a snapshot in time,” Ahlers said. “Polls don’t vote, people do. During the primary, many polls predicted Dusty Johnson would win and Larry Rhoden would finish third. We’ve seen how quickly things can change. There are still a lot of undecided voters, and I’m going to keep working hard every day through Election Day to earn the trust and support of South Dakotans. I won’t take anyone’s vote for granted.”

In contrast, South Dakota News Watch listed Rhoden ahead 56% to 36%.

Earlier this month, Senate candidate Brian Bengs, running as an Independent, cited two polls showing he was in the lead or close behind incumbent Republican Senator Mike Rounds. Lake Research Partners had Bengs leading 51% to 42% and Zenith Research had Bengs trailing 47% to 53%.

However, South Dakota News Watch and Mike Rounds’ internal polling show him with a large lead. South Dakota News Watch listed Rounds’ lead as 56% to 37%, and Rounds’ internal poll conducted by Public Opinion Strategies listed his lead as 54% to 37%.

In a release, National Republican Senatorial Committee regional Press Secretary Samantha Cantrell listed her main takeaways from the numbers.

“South Dakotans haven’t forgotten that Brian Bengs ran as a Democrat just a couple years ago,” Cantrell said.

Despite the polls that show him losing big, Bengs stated in a release, “We’ve been gaining momentum for months, especially since this became a two-person race. I see it on the ground, we see it in the polling, and we’re going to see it in November.”

So how should the public take in this information that shows such stark contrast? University of South Dakota Diane Jones Meier Distinguished Professor of Gender and Public Policy Julia Hellwege said polling differences can be interpreted by the different variables like sample size and targeted demographics.

“Most polls that we’re seeing truly are scientific polls, but they still can end up in different kind of results, and that’s okay,” explained Hellwege. “That doesn’t mean that polls are bad. It just means that they’re using different approaches and maybe targeting different lists of likely voters.”

A larger sample size and more random demographics surveyed usually generate results closer to the final election day results. These factors create varying margins of error. Hellwege said a margin of error under five percent is a better representation for a population, but people should be wary of things like who commissioned the poll, how the questions were worded or when the survey was taken. Hellwege explained that earlier polls are less accurate to election results because surveyed individuals typically have less information about the candidates or are more optimistic about whether they will vote or not.

“It’s not sufficient to ask people what their preferences are. We also need to understand how likely they are to vote because it doesn’t matter what their preferences are if they don’t show up at the polls,” Hellwege said.

Releasing poll numbers often creates an ethical dilemma because of how it may potentially influence voters at the ballot box. Hellwege cited examples of a constituent choosing not to vote because polling showed that their party was losing in a landslide and they feel their vote wouldn’t matter, or their party doing well in polling and believing their party would win without their vote.

“I do think conducting polls influences voters both in terms of information that they receive about the candidate, but also in terms of their likelihood to go vote. I think that’s a really heavy responsibility [for researchers and media],” Hellwege described.

Hellwege added that with that responsibility, she hopes voter turnout is not impacted.

“I think we need to be really careful and thoughtful about when we’re sharing this, which is why I also try to make a really big point about always saying, ‘Go vote and use this as civic information,’” said Hellwege.

The variables that impact poll accuracy are in some ways even greater in South Dakota because of the 46 days of early voting, according to Hellwege. She hopes voters remain engaged and increase their information literacy about understanding how polls work and what the context of each poll means.

Learn more about the candidates for statewide office in our recent “Meet the Candidates” series of interviews.